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Forecasting newsletter: June 2024
Interactive Brokers entered the arena, Polymarket new ATH, Manifest whiplash, process to stop political prediction markets in the US still stoppable
Jul 9
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Nuño Sempere
10
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Forecasting newsletter: June 2024
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June 2024
Forecasting newsletter: May 2024
Polymarket raised $$, CFTC prohibiting political prediction markets, and an anti-prediction markets lobbying group.
Jun 5
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Nuño Sempere
11
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Forecasting newsletter: May 2024
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April 2024
Alert minutes for week #17/2024
These are the weekly minutes for Alert’s foresight team, which seeks to identify and quantify possibly upcoming catastrophes.
Apr 28
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Nuño Sempere
15
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Alert minutes for week #17/2024
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The State of Forecasting: Dynamics, Challenges, Hopes
I am sad to report that forecasting hasn't taken over the world yet.
Apr 28
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Nuño Sempere
25
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The State of Forecasting: Dynamics, Challenges, Hopes
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March 2024
A Gentle Introduction to Risk Frameworks Beyond Forecasting
EAs, rats, forecasters & prediction markets people think about risk in an idiosyncratic way. But there are insights to be found in other expert…
Mar 26
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Nuño Sempere
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Nathaniel Cooke
8
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A Gentle Introduction to Risk Frameworks Beyond Forecasting
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Forecasting newsletter coming back soon.
Next article to be overview of non-forecasting foresight methods, next article after that, State of Forecasting. Paid subscriptions to be turned back…
Mar 21
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Nuño Sempere
13
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Forecasting newsletter coming back soon.
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March 2023
This newsletter is paused until further notice.
Too tricky, don't get paid enough & don't want to antagonize Open Philanthropy prematurely.
Mar 12, 2023
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Nuño Sempere
14
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This newsletter is paused until further notice.
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January 2023
Forecasting Newsletter for November and December 2022
PredictIt near its end, Avi Eisenberg held in jail, and no FTX forecasting money ever again.
Jan 7, 2023
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Nuño Sempere
12
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Forecasting Newsletter for November and December 2022
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November 2022
Forecasting Newsletter for October 2022
Nuclear probabilities spiked & spooked Musk, Council on Strategic Risk seeking Strategic Forecaster.
Nov 15, 2022
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Nuño Sempere
3
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Forecasting Newsletter for October 2022
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October 2022
Draft comment to the CFTC
Below is a short draft comment I was considering sending to the CFTC. Ultimately, I didn’t, because of problems with the CFTC’s website, because the…
Oct 18, 2022
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Nuño Sempere
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Draft comment to the CFTC
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Forecasting Newsletter: September 2022.
PredictIt vs Kalshi vs CFTC saga continues. Future Fund anounced $1M+ prize for shifting their probabilities of AI timelines & dangers. Dan Luu looks at…
Oct 12, 2022
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Nuño Sempere
9
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Forecasting Newsletter: September 2022.
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September 2022
Forecasting Newsletter: August 2022.
CFTC asks for public comments about allowing Kalshi to phagocytize PredictIt's political prediction markets niche, $25k tournament by Richard Hanania…
Sep 10, 2022
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Nuño Sempere
11
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Forecasting Newsletter: August 2022.
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