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Tony's avatar
Apr 9Edited

The Leibniz bit was super interesting. I'll remember it next time I make a mistake...

Leibniz was 67 when he wrote that letter. Might he had fallen prey of the retired physicist syndrome? https://www.smbc-comics.com/index.php?db=comics&id=2556

(by comparison, he was in his 20s-30s when developing calculus).

Elon comes to mind, not sure why...

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Carolyn Meinel's avatar

Isaac Newton also fell prey to weirdness in his old age, as have many a Nobel Prize Winner.

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Pat Myron's avatar

> Kalshi also had a bad market resolution

Kalshi's 2025 Champions League Winner event alone had 3 incorrectly settled markets (Feyenoord, Club Brugge, and PSV Eindhoven all prematurely settled NO in the middle of 2-game series):

https://web.archive.org/web/20250306023200/https://kalshi.com/markets/kxuefacl/uefa-champions-league

and Kalshi settled the #1 and #2 US iPhone apps to the same app at the same time:

https://kalshi.com/markets/kxapprankfree/free-app-ranking#kxapprankfree-25jun15

https://kalshi.com/markets/kxapprankfree2/free-app-ranking#kxapprankfree2-25jun15

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Nuño Sempere's avatar

1) Oh noes, 2) sports, so I have less sympathy/care less, though it could be predictive of failures on nonsports markets

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Pat Myron's avatar

While those markets themselves aren't the most important outcomes, I actually specifically chose those misresolutions since they're the most objectively incorrect settlements, so it's most incriminating that even those markets aren't settling correctly

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