Kalshi's 2025 Champions League Winner event alone had 3 incorrectly settled markets (Feyenoord, Club Brugge, and PSV Eindhoven all prematurely settled NO in the middle of 2-game series):
While those markets themselves aren't the most important outcomes, I actually specifically chose those misresolutions since they're the most objectively incorrect settlements, so it's most incriminating that even those markets aren't settling correctly
The Leibniz bit was super interesting. I'll remember it next time I make a mistake...
Leibniz was 67 when he wrote that letter. Might he had fallen prey of the retired physicist syndrome? https://www.smbc-comics.com/index.php?db=comics&id=2556
(by comparison, he was in his 20s-30s when developing calculus).
Elon comes to mind, not sure why...
Isaac Newton also fell prey to weirdness in his old age, as have many a Nobel Prize Winner.
> Kalshi also had a bad market resolution
Kalshi's 2025 Champions League Winner event alone had 3 incorrectly settled markets (Feyenoord, Club Brugge, and PSV Eindhoven all prematurely settled NO in the middle of 2-game series):
https://web.archive.org/web/20250306023200/https://kalshi.com/markets/kxuefacl/uefa-champions-league
+ more prematurely settled markets here:
https://kalshi.com/markets/kxsalt/salt-tax-cap-raised
and Kalshi settled the #1 and #2 US iPhone apps to the same app at the same time:
https://kalshi.com/markets/kxapprankfree/free-app-ranking#kxapprankfree-25jun15
https://kalshi.com/markets/kxapprankfree2/free-app-ranking#kxapprankfree2-25jun15
and changed this market's definition:
https://kalshi.com/markets/kxsilverapprovalmusk/musk-approval-silver-bulletin
1) Oh noes, 2) sports, so I have less sympathy/care less, though it could be predictive of failures on nonsports markets
While those markets themselves aren't the most important outcomes, I actually specifically chose those misresolutions since they're the most objectively incorrect settlements, so it's most incriminating that even those markets aren't settling correctly