Polymarket keeps on growing, otherwise slow summer.
congrats to rai (& you)!
> Metaculus has a Respiratory Outlook 2024/25 (a) tournament. Its forecasters are sitting at a 15% (a) probability of human to human transmission of H5N1 before 2026.
Keep in mind, we're predicting CDC saying that there is "probable" h2h transmission, as they've done several times before: https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/php/avian-flu-summary/h5n1-human-infections.html . Most of us don't believe that this will correspond to actual h2h transmission.
This is a great clarification, thanks!
congrats to rai (& you)!
> Metaculus has a Respiratory Outlook 2024/25 (a) tournament. Its forecasters are sitting at a 15% (a) probability of human to human transmission of H5N1 before 2026.
Keep in mind, we're predicting CDC saying that there is "probable" h2h transmission, as they've done several times before: https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/php/avian-flu-summary/h5n1-human-infections.html . Most of us don't believe that this will correspond to actual h2h transmission.
This is a great clarification, thanks!