Forecasting | Nuño Sempere | Substack

US CDC opens a pandemic forecasting center. Tetlock's forecasting team is recruiting for a tournament on predicting existential risk. Manifold Markets makes their webpage open source.

New Top Community

Polymarket incentivizes wash-trading, new research summarizes forecasters vs experts, forecasting wiki launched.

Apr 5

Keine Davon to become German Chancellor, Netflix to release Korean soap opera on forecasting, Hague to allow Treaty on Accuracy to stand.

Apr 1

In light of the war in Ukraine and fears of nuclear escalation, we turned to forecasting to assess whether individuals and organizations should leave…

Mar 10

FTX Foundation to Funnel Funds to Forecasting, $$ moved in Ukraine invasion prediction markets & bets.

Mar 5

Polymarket legally based in Panama, Aver.bet raises $7.5M, $10k micro-grants program, and a forecasting meetup.

Feb 3

The American Empire Has Alzheimer's. Prediction Markets: VC money, searching for DraftKings, predatory pricing, and the race to be last.

Jan 27

Polymarket future uncertain after CFTC settlement, Astral Codex Ten coughs out forecasting cash, Manifold Markets appears.

Jan 10

Forecasting

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