Forecasting Newsletter
Misha Yagudin creates a webpage to get one’s calibration chart for Good Judgment Open and CSET-Foretell. Hypermind experiments with new methods of eliciting, incentivizing and scoring long-range forecasts. Augur launches Augur Turbo on Polygon, but gets very little trade volume
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Polymarket is being attacked by “sandwiching” bots. Metaculus launches “Forecasting Causes”. Demski outlines questionable and implicit assumptions whic…
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May 1Comment 1Share
OpenPhilanthropy releases report on outside view perspectives on the likelihood of AGI. Jason Matheny, previous director of IARPA, CSET, is now a ¿seni…
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Apr 1CommentShare
Biden orders the creation of a National Center for Epidemic Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics. Americans get a clone of Betfair/Smarkets, expected to …
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Mar 1Comment 1Share
Veteran PredictIt trader writes a pretty good guide on how to make money on prediction markets. Metaculus and Hypermind both have new COVID-19 forecast…
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Feb 1CommentShare
This document contains a series of highlights about forecasting in 2020 which I have gathered after 10 months of writing a forecasting newsletter.
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Jan 10CommentShare
Highlights: Nigh unbeatable forecaster gives 85% chance that the newly identified COVID-19 strain is >30% more transmissible. Prediction markets and be…
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Jan 1CommentShare
Highlights: DeepMind claims a major breakthrough in protein folding. OPEC forecasts slower growth, while Gnosis announces futarchy experiment...
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Dec 1, 2020CommentShare
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Forecasting Newsletter


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