Forecasting
Despite forecaster consensus to the contrary, Kabul has fallen. CSET-Foretell attempts to make inroads into US decision-making mechanisms. The US’ CDC to launch a new outbreak analysis and forecast center
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One can laugh at Biden, and mention that he is "not a superforecaster". But forecasters and superforecasters alike also failed to see this one coming.
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Biatob is a new site to embed betting odds into one’s writing. Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction market, launches in the US Malta in trouble over bet…
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Highlights Some Superforecasters start a substack, as does Dominic Cummings Alex Lawsen and I published Alignment Problems With Current Forecasting Pla…
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Misha Yagudin creates a webpage to get one’s calibration chart for Good Judgment Open and CSET-Foretell. Hypermind experiments with new methods of elic…
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Polymarket is being attacked by “sandwiching” bots. Metaculus launches “Forecasting Causes”. Demski outlines questionable and implicit assumptions whic…
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OpenPhilanthropy releases report on outside view perspectives on the likelihood of AGI. Jason Matheny, previous director of IARPA, CSET, is now a ¿seni…
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Biden orders the creation of a National Center for Epidemic Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics. Americans get a clone of Betfair/Smarkets, expected to …
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Forecasting


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