PredictIt near its end, Avi Eisenberg held in jail, and no FTX forecasting money ever again.
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This forecasting newsletter will be back with a combined issue for the months of November & December.
Nuclear probabilities spiked & spooked Musk, Council on Strategic Risk seeking Strategic Forecaster.
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Below is a short draft comment I was considering sending to the CFTC. Ultimately, I didn’t, because of problems with the CFTC’s website, because the…
PredictIt vs Kalshi vs CFTC saga continues. Future Fund anounced $1M+ prize for shifting their probabilities of AI timelines & dangers. Dan Luu looks at…
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CFTC asks for public comments about allowing Kalshi to phagocytize PredictIt's political prediction markets niche, $25k tournament by Richard Hanania…
PredictIt loses CFTC approval, Metaculus gets $5M Open Philanthropy grant, Indian prediction market scene starts to thrive.
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Oxford Workshop on Longterm Forecasting happened, track record of science-fiction authors unearthed, forecasters surprised by ML models' math ability…
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Forecasting