Despite forecaster consensus to the contrary, Kabul has fallen. CSET-Foretell attempts to make inroads into US decision-making mechanisms. The US’ CDC to launch a new outbreak analysis and forecast center
One can laugh at Biden, and mention that he is "not a superforecaster". But forecasters and superforecasters alike also failed to see this one coming.
Biatob is a new site to embed betting odds into one’s writing. Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction market, launches in the US Malta in trouble over bet…
Highlights Some Superforecasters start a substack, as does Dominic Cummings Alex Lawsen and I published Alignment Problems With Current Forecasting Pla…
Misha Yagudin creates a webpage to get one’s calibration chart for Good Judgment Open and CSET-Foretell. Hypermind experiments with new methods of elic…
Polymarket is being attacked by “sandwiching” bots. Metaculus launches “Forecasting Causes”. Demski outlines questionable and implicit assumptions whic…
OpenPhilanthropy releases report on outside view perspectives on the likelihood of AGI. Jason Matheny, previous director of IARPA, CSET, is now a ¿seni…
Biden orders the creation of a National Center for Epidemic Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics. Americans get a clone of Betfair/Smarkets, expected to …
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