Misha Yagudin creates a webpage to get one’s calibration chart for Good Judgment Open and CSET-Foretell. Hypermind experiments with new methods of eliciting, incentivizing and scoring long-range forecasts. Augur launches Augur Turbo on Polygon, but gets very little trade volume
Polymarket is being attacked by “sandwiching” bots. Metaculus launches “Forecasting Causes”. Demski outlines questionable and implicit assumptions whic…
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OpenPhilanthropy releases report on outside view perspectives on the likelihood of AGI. Jason Matheny, previous director of IARPA, CSET, is now a ¿seni…
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Biden orders the creation of a National Center for Epidemic Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics. Americans get a clone of Betfair/Smarkets, expected to …
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Veteran PredictIt trader writes a pretty good guide on how to make money on prediction markets. Metaculus and Hypermind both have new COVID-19 forecast…
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This document contains a series of highlights about forecasting in 2020 which I have gathered after 10 months of writing a forecasting newsletter.
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Highlights: Nigh unbeatable forecaster gives 85% chance that the newly identified COVID-19 strain is >30% more transmissible. Prediction markets and be…
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Highlights: DeepMind claims a major breakthrough in protein folding. OPEC forecasts slower growth, while Gnosis announces futarchy experiment...
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