PredictIt near its end, Avi Eisenberg held in jail, and no FTX forecasting money ever again.

December 2022

This forecasting newsletter will be back with a combined issue for the months of November & December.

November 2022

Nuclear probabilities spiked & spooked Musk, Council on Strategic Risk seeking Strategic Forecaster.

October 2022

Below is a short draft comment I was considering sending to the CFTC. Ultimately, I didn’t, because of problems with the CFTC’s website, because the…
PredictIt vs Kalshi vs CFTC saga continues. Future Fund anounced $1M+ prize for shifting their probabilities of AI timelines & dangers. Dan Luu looks at…

September 2022

CFTC asks for public comments about allowing Kalshi to phagocytize PredictIt's political prediction markets niche, $25k tournament by Richard Hanania…

August 2022

PredictIt loses CFTC approval, Metaculus gets $5M Open Philanthropy grant, Indian prediction market scene starts to thrive.

July 2022

Oxford Workshop on Longterm Forecasting happened, track record of science-fiction authors unearthed, forecasters surprised by ML models' math ability…

June 2022

Open Philanthropy asking for biological risk quantifications, Survival and Flourishing Fund gives $1M to forecasting, Kalshi featured in Bloomberg.

May 2022

US CDC opens a pandemic forecasting center. Tetlock's forecasting team is recruiting for a tournament on predicting existential risk. Manifold Markets…

April 2022

Polymarket incentivizes wash-trading, new research summarizes forecasters vs experts, forecasting wiki launched.
Keine Davon to become German Chancellor, Netflix to release Korean soap opera on forecasting, Hague to allow Treaty on Accuracy to stand.