Archive - Forecasting

Forecasting newsletter #6/2025: Manifold structured debt, Manifest soon & ongoing Kalshi lawfare

and /r/forecasting subreddit resuscitated

Jun 4 •

May 2025

Forecasting newsletter #5/2025: Southeast Asian gangs, adj.news, JurisTrade.

JurisTrade is a litigation marketplace, Southeast Asian gambling & cybercrime gangs look competent, adj.news platform improving, now has good API docs…

May 7 •

April 2025

Forecasting newsletter #4/2025: Sloppy resolutions, AI in 2027

What feels most alive to me this past month: Kalshi and Polymarket misses, AI 2027

Apr 8 •

March 2025

Forecasting newsletter #3/2025: Long march through the institutions

Mar 7 •

February 2025

Forecasting newsletter #2/2025: Forecasting meetup network

Feb 9 •

January 2025

Forecasting newsletter #1/2025: The calm before the Trump

Jan 8 •

December 2024

Forecasting newsletter for November 2024. Polymarket Total Value locked goes down from $500M to $100M.

The key question this month was whether prediction markets in general and Polymarket in particular would manage to retain the large volume they…

Dec 8, 2024 •

November 2024

Forecasting newsletter: US elections

Huge US election volumes, Robinhood added presidential prediction markets, Richard Ngo on why he is not a Bayesian.

Nov 6, 2024 •

October 2024

Forecasting newsletter for September 2024: Political betting live in the US

Political prediction markets live in the US on Kalshi and Interactive Brokers. Manifold markets introduces monetary payouts under a sweepstakes model…

Oct 8, 2024 •

September 2024

Forecasting newsletter for August 2024

The eye of the world turns to the US elections, and Polymarket captures its attention. Imitators pop up but don't have a great story for why they're…

Sep 8, 2024 •

August 2024

Forecasting newsletter: July 2024

Polymarket keeps on growing, otherwise slow summer.

Aug 3, 2024 •

July 2024

Forecasting newsletter: June 2024

Interactive Brokers entered the arena, Polymarket new ATH, Manifest whiplash, process to stop political prediction markets in the US still stoppable

Jul 9, 2024 •

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