Forecasting

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PredictIt near its end, Avi Eisenberg held in jail, and no FTX forecasting money ever again.
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11

December 2022

This forecasting newsletter will be back with a combined issue for the months of November & December.
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November 2022

Nuclear probabilities spiked & spooked Musk, Council on Strategic Risk seeking Strategic Forecaster.
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2

October 2022

Below is a short draft comment I was considering sending to the CFTC. Ultimately, I didn’t, because of problems with the CFTC’s website, because the…
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PredictIt vs Kalshi vs CFTC saga continues. Future Fund anounced $1M+ prize for shifting their probabilities of AI timelines & dangers. Dan Luu looks at…
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3

September 2022

CFTC asks for public comments about allowing Kalshi to phagocytize PredictIt's political prediction markets niche, $25k tournament by Richard Hanania…
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August 2022

PredictIt loses CFTC approval, Metaculus gets $5M Open Philanthropy grant, Indian prediction market scene starts to thrive.
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9

July 2022

Oxford Workshop on Longterm Forecasting happened, track record of science-fiction authors unearthed, forecasters surprised by ML models' math ability…
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8

June 2022

Open Philanthropy asking for biological risk quantifications, Survival and Flourishing Fund gives $1M to forecasting, Kalshi featured in Bloomberg.
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May 2022

US CDC opens a pandemic forecasting center. Tetlock's forecasting team is recruiting for a tournament on predicting existential risk. Manifold Markets…
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April 2022

Polymarket incentivizes wash-trading, new research summarizes forecasters vs experts, forecasting wiki launched.
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17
Keine Davon to become German Chancellor, Netflix to release Korean soap opera on forecasting, Hague to allow Treaty on Accuracy to stand.
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