Archive - Forecasting

Forecasting newsletter: June 2024

Interactive Brokers entered the arena, Polymarket new ATH, Manifest whiplash, process to stop political prediction markets in the US still stoppable

Jul 9 •

June 2024

Forecasting newsletter: May 2024

Polymarket raised $$, CFTC prohibiting political prediction markets, and an anti-prediction markets lobbying group.

Jun 5 •

April 2024

Alert minutes for week #17/2024

These are the weekly minutes for Alert’s foresight team, which seeks to identify and quantify possibly upcoming catastrophes.

Apr 28 •

The State of Forecasting: Dynamics, Challenges, Hopes

I am sad to report that forecasting hasn't taken over the world yet.

Apr 28 •

March 2024

A Gentle Introduction to Risk Frameworks Beyond Forecasting

EAs, rats, forecasters & prediction markets people think about risk in an idiosyncratic way. But there are insights to be found in other expert…

Mar 26 •

and

Nathaniel Cooke

Forecasting newsletter coming back soon.

Next article to be overview of non-forecasting foresight methods, next article after that, State of Forecasting. Paid subscriptions to be turned back…

Mar 21 •

March 2023

This newsletter is paused until further notice.

Too tricky, don't get paid enough & don't want to antagonize Open Philanthropy prematurely.

Mar 12, 2023 •

January 2023

Forecasting Newsletter for November and December 2022

PredictIt near its end, Avi Eisenberg held in jail, and no FTX forecasting money ever again.

Jan 7, 2023 •

November 2022

Forecasting Newsletter for October 2022

Nuclear probabilities spiked & spooked Musk, Council on Strategic Risk seeking Strategic Forecaster.

Nov 15, 2022 •

October 2022

Draft comment to the CFTC

Below is a short draft comment I was considering sending to the CFTC. Ultimately, I didn’t, because of problems with the CFTC’s website, because the…

Oct 18, 2022 •

Forecasting Newsletter: September 2022.

PredictIt vs Kalshi vs CFTC saga continues. Future Fund anounced $1M+ prize for shifting their probabilities of AI timelines & dangers. Dan Luu looks at…

Oct 12, 2022 •

September 2022

Forecasting Newsletter: August 2022.

CFTC asks for public comments about allowing Kalshi to phagocytize PredictIt's political prediction markets niche, $25k tournament by Richard Hanania…

Sep 10, 2022 •

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