Archive - Forecasting

A Gentle Introduction to Risk Frameworks Beyond Forecasting

EAs, rats, forecasters & prediction markets people think about risk in an idiosyncratic way. But there are insights to be found in other expert…

Mar 26 •

and

Nathaniel Cooke

Forecasting newsletter coming back soon.

Next article to be overview of non-forecasting foresight methods, next article after that, State of Forecasting. Paid subscriptions to be turned back…

Mar 21 •

March 2023

This newsletter is paused until further notice.

Too tricky, don't get paid enough & don't want to antagonize Open Philanthropy prematurely.

Mar 12, 2023 •

January 2023

Forecasting Newsletter for November and December 2022

PredictIt near its end, Avi Eisenberg held in jail, and no FTX forecasting money ever again.

Jan 7, 2023 •

November 2022

Forecasting Newsletter for October 2022

Nuclear probabilities spiked & spooked Musk, Council on Strategic Risk seeking Strategic Forecaster.

Nov 15, 2022 •

October 2022

Draft comment to the CFTC

Below is a short draft comment I was considering sending to the CFTC. Ultimately, I didn’t, because of problems with the CFTC’s website, because the…

Oct 18, 2022 •

Forecasting Newsletter: September 2022.

PredictIt vs Kalshi vs CFTC saga continues. Future Fund anounced $1M+ prize for shifting their probabilities of AI timelines & dangers. Dan Luu looks at…

Oct 12, 2022 •

September 2022

Forecasting Newsletter: August 2022.

CFTC asks for public comments about allowing Kalshi to phagocytize PredictIt's political prediction markets niche, $25k tournament by Richard Hanania…

Sep 10, 2022 •

August 2022

Forecasting Newsletter: July 2022

PredictIt loses CFTC approval, Metaculus gets $5M Open Philanthropy grant, Indian prediction market scene starts to thrive.

Aug 8, 2022 •

July 2022

Forecasting Newsletter: June 2022

Oxford Workshop on Longterm Forecasting happened, track record of science-fiction authors unearthed, forecasters surprised by ML models' math ability…

Jul 12, 2022 •

June 2022

Forecasting Newsletter: May 2022

Open Philanthropy asking for biological risk quantifications, Survival and Flourishing Fund gives $1M to forecasting, Kalshi featured in Bloomberg.

Jun 3, 2022 •

May 2022

Forecasting Newsletter: April 2022

US CDC opens a pandemic forecasting center. Tetlock's forecasting team is recruiting for a tournament on predicting existential risk. Manifold Markets…

May 10, 2022 •

#nojs-banner { position: fixed; bottom: 0; left: 0; padding: 16px 16px 16px 32px; width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; background: red; color: white; font-family: -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 13px; line-height: 13px; } #nojs-banner a { color: inherit; text-decoration: underline; } This site requires JavaScript to run correctly. Please turn on JavaScript or unblock scripts