Forecasting

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CFTC asks for public comments about allowing Kalshi to phagocytize PredictIt's political prediction markets niche, $25k tournament by Richard Hanania…
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PredictIt loses CFTC approval, Metaculus gets $5M Open Philanthropy grant, Indian prediction market scene starts to thrive.
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Oxford Workshop on Longterm Forecasting happened, track record of science-fiction authors unearthed, forecasters surprised by ML models' math ability…
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Open Philanthropy asking for biological risk quantifications, Survival and Flourishing Fund gives $1M to forecasting, Kalshi featured in Bloomberg.
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US CDC opens a pandemic forecasting center. Tetlock's forecasting team is recruiting for a tournament on predicting existential risk. Manifold Markets…
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Polymarket incentivizes wash-trading, new research summarizes forecasters vs experts, forecasting wiki launched.
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Keine Davon to become German Chancellor, Netflix to release Korean soap opera on forecasting, Hague to allow Treaty on Accuracy to stand.
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In light of the war in Ukraine and fears of nuclear escalation, we turned to forecasting to assess whether individuals and organizations should leave…
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FTX Foundation to Funnel Funds to Forecasting, $$ moved in Ukraine invasion prediction markets & bets.
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Polymarket legally based in Panama, Aver.bet raises $7.5M, $10k micro-grants program, and a forecasting meetup.
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The American Empire Has Alzheimer's. Prediction Markets: VC money, searching for DraftKings, predatory pricing, and the race to be last.
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Polymarket future uncertain after CFTC settlement, Astral Codex Ten coughs out forecasting cash, Manifold Markets appears.
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