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Forecasting newsletter: US elections
Huge US election volumes, Robinhood added presidential prediction markets, Richard Ngo on why he is not a Bayesian.
Nov 6
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Nuño Sempere
11
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Forecasting newsletter: US elections
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October 2024
Forecasting newsletter for September 2024: Political betting live in the US
Political prediction markets live in the US on Kalshi and Interactive Brokers. Manifold markets introduces monetary payouts under a sweepstakes model…
Oct 8
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Nuño Sempere
8
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Forecasting newsletter for September 2024: Political betting live in the US
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September 2024
Forecasting newsletter for August 2024
The eye of the world turns to the US elections, and Polymarket captures its attention. Imitators pop up but don't have a great story for why they're…
Sep 8
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Nuño Sempere
11
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Forecasting newsletter for August 2024
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August 2024
Forecasting newsletter: July 2024
Polymarket keeps on growing, otherwise slow summer.
Aug 3
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Nuño Sempere
8
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Forecasting newsletter: July 2024
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3
July 2024
Forecasting newsletter: June 2024
Interactive Brokers entered the arena, Polymarket new ATH, Manifest whiplash, process to stop political prediction markets in the US still stoppable
Jul 9
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Nuño Sempere
10
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Forecasting newsletter: June 2024
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3
June 2024
Forecasting newsletter: May 2024
Polymarket raised $$, CFTC prohibiting political prediction markets, and an anti-prediction markets lobbying group.
Jun 5
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Nuño Sempere
11
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Forecasting newsletter: May 2024
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1
April 2024
Alert minutes for week #17/2024
These are the weekly minutes for Alert’s foresight team, which seeks to identify and quantify possibly upcoming catastrophes.
Apr 28
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Nuño Sempere
15
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Alert minutes for week #17/2024
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The State of Forecasting: Dynamics, Challenges, Hopes
I am sad to report that forecasting hasn't taken over the world yet.
Apr 28
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Nuño Sempere
25
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The State of Forecasting: Dynamics, Challenges, Hopes
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19
March 2024
A Gentle Introduction to Risk Frameworks Beyond Forecasting
EAs, rats, forecasters & prediction markets people think about risk in an idiosyncratic way. But there are insights to be found in other expert…
Mar 26
•
Nuño Sempere
and
Nathaniel Cooke
9
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A Gentle Introduction to Risk Frameworks Beyond Forecasting
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6
Forecasting newsletter coming back soon.
Next article to be overview of non-forecasting foresight methods, next article after that, State of Forecasting. Paid subscriptions to be turned back…
Mar 21
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Nuño Sempere
13
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Forecasting newsletter coming back soon.
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2
March 2023
This newsletter is paused until further notice.
Too tricky, don't get paid enough & don't want to antagonize Open Philanthropy prematurely.
Mar 12, 2023
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Nuño Sempere
14
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This newsletter is paused until further notice.
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8
January 2023
Forecasting Newsletter for November and December 2022
PredictIt near its end, Avi Eisenberg held in jail, and no FTX forecasting money ever again.
Jan 7, 2023
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Nuño Sempere
12
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Forecasting Newsletter for November and December 2022
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11
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