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Too tricky, don't get paid enough & don't want to antagonize Open Philanthropy prematurely.
Mar 12
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Nuño Sempere
12
8
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January 2023
Forecasting Newsletter for November and December 2022
PredictIt near its end, Avi Eisenberg held in jail, and no FTX forecasting money ever again.
Jan 7
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Nuño Sempere
11
11
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Forecasting Newsletter for November and December 2022
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November 2022
Forecasting Newsletter for October 2022
Nuclear probabilities spiked & spooked Musk, Council on Strategic Risk seeking Strategic Forecaster.
Nov 15, 2022
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Nuño Sempere
3
2
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Forecasting Newsletter for October 2022
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October 2022
Draft comment to the CFTC
Below is a short draft comment I was considering sending to the CFTC. Ultimately, I didn’t, because of problems with the CFTC’s website, because the…
Oct 18, 2022
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Nuño Sempere
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Draft comment to the CFTC
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Forecasting Newsletter: September 2022.
PredictIt vs Kalshi vs CFTC saga continues. Future Fund anounced $1M+ prize for shifting their probabilities of AI timelines & dangers. Dan Luu looks at…
Oct 12, 2022
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Nuño Sempere
9
3
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Forecasting Newsletter: September 2022.
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September 2022
Forecasting Newsletter: August 2022.
CFTC asks for public comments about allowing Kalshi to phagocytize PredictIt's political prediction markets niche, $25k tournament by Richard Hanania…
Sep 10, 2022
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Nuño Sempere
11
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Forecasting Newsletter: August 2022.
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August 2022
Forecasting Newsletter: July 2022
PredictIt loses CFTC approval, Metaculus gets $5M Open Philanthropy grant, Indian prediction market scene starts to thrive.
Aug 8, 2022
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Nuño Sempere
7
9
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Forecasting Newsletter: July 2022
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July 2022
Forecasting Newsletter: June 2022
Oxford Workshop on Longterm Forecasting happened, track record of science-fiction authors unearthed, forecasters surprised by ML models' math ability…
Jul 12, 2022
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Nuño Sempere
7
8
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Forecasting Newsletter: June 2022
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June 2022
Forecasting Newsletter: May 2022
Open Philanthropy asking for biological risk quantifications, Survival and Flourishing Fund gives $1M to forecasting, Kalshi featured in Bloomberg.
Jun 3, 2022
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Nuño Sempere
4
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Forecasting Newsletter: May 2022
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May 2022
Forecasting Newsletter: April 2022
US CDC opens a pandemic forecasting center. Tetlock's forecasting team is recruiting for a tournament on predicting existential risk. Manifold Markets…
May 10, 2022
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Nuño Sempere
8
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Forecasting Newsletter: April 2022
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April 2022
Forecasting Newsletter: March 2022
Polymarket incentivizes wash-trading, new research summarizes forecasters vs experts, forecasting wiki launched.
Apr 5, 2022
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Nuño Sempere
6
17
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Forecasting Newsletter: March 2022
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Forecasting Newsletter: April 2222
Keine Davon to become German Chancellor, Netflix to release Korean soap opera on forecasting, Hague to allow Treaty on Accuracy to stand.
Apr 1, 2022
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Nuño Sempere
4
5
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Forecasting Newsletter: April 2222
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