Forecasting

National security professionals again found not to be calibrated, Swift Centre on UK winter blackout, adj.news' US Political Future Index …

Highlights

Oct 13 • 

Nuño Sempere

9

September 2025

Opportunity markets, AI forecasters, Polymarket’s builders program || Forecasting newsletter #9/2025

Highlights

Sep 11 • 

Nuño Sempere

15

1

August 2025

Timeline of all Manifold markets, Polymarket buys US exchange, deceitful ex-Senator lobbies CFTC | Forecasting newslettter #8/2025

Highlights

Aug 7 • 

Nuño Sempere

10

2

July 2025

Humans still crush bots at forecasting, scribble-based forecasting, Kalshi reaches $2B valuation | Forecasting newslettter #7/2025

and possible big incoming tax hike coming to US-based bettors (a).

Jul 5 • 

Nuño Sempere

10

3

June 2025

Forecasting newsletter #6/2025: Manifold structured debt, Manifest soon & ongoing Kalshi lawfare

and /r/forecasting subreddit resuscitated

Jun 4 • 

Nuño Sempere

12

May 2025

Forecasting newsletter #5/2025: Southeast Asian gangs, adj.news, JurisTrade.

JurisTrade is a litigation marketplace, Southeast Asian gambling & cybercrime gangs look competent, adj.news platform improving, now has good API docs…

May 7 • 

Nuño Sempere

12

4

April 2025

Forecasting newsletter #4/2025: Sloppy resolutions, AI in 2027

What feels most alive to me this past month: Kalshi and Polymarket misses, AI 2027

Apr 8 • 

Nuño Sempere

16

5

March 2025

Forecasting newsletter #3/2025: Long march through the institutions

Highlights

Mar 7 • 

Nuño Sempere

13

4

February 2025

Forecasting newsletter #2/2025: Forecasting meetup network

Highlights

Feb 9 • 

Nuño Sempere

9

January 2025

Forecasting newsletter #1/2025: The calm before the Trump

Highlights

Jan 8 • 

Nuño Sempere

12

December 2024

Forecasting newsletter for November 2024. Polymarket Total Value locked goes down from $500M to $100M.

The key question this month was whether prediction markets in general and Polymarket in particular would manage to retain the large volume they…

Dec 8, 2024 • 

Nuño Sempere

8

2

November 2024

Forecasting newsletter: US elections

Huge US election volumes, Robinhood added presidential prediction markets, Richard Ngo on why he is not a Bayesian.

Nov 6, 2024 • 

Nuño Sempere

12