Forecasting

Vignettes from my life, romance math, Saudi Arabia vs United Arab Emirates, and cheap Chinese watches || Forecasting newsletter III/2026

Purveying high quality decorrelated tokens

Jun 5 • Nuño Sempere

5

2

1

April 2026

AI 2040, forecasting founders, capital allocation, the end of OpenPhilanthropy's forecasting programme || Forecasting newsletter

AI 2040 // Forecasting projects and founders I feel excited about // Capital allocatioon // The End of OpenPhilanthropy's forecasting grantmaking…

Apr 17 • Nuño Sempere

21

3

February 2026

Aggressively reorienting the forecasting community towards AI resilience

Create 100 questions on the future of AI on Polymarket, each with $1M liquidity, to produce common knowledge on likely future paths.

Feb 9 • Nuño Sempere

29

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6

December 2025

Feedback loops for forecasting funding, builders' programs, corporate forecasting || Forecasting newsletter #12/2025

Editorial

Dec 15, 2025 • Nuño Sempere

11

4

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November 2025

Prediction market gold rush, legal drama, AI forecasters on the horizon? || Forecasting newsletter #11/2025

What I feel curious about this month

Nov 13, 2025 • Nuño Sempere

12

6

3

October 2025

National security professionals again found not to be calibrated, Swift Centre on UK winter blackout, adj.news' US Political Future Index …

Highlights

Oct 13, 2025 • Nuño Sempere

10

3

September 2025

Opportunity markets, AI forecasters, Polymarket’s builders program || Forecasting newsletter #9/2025

Highlights

Sep 11, 2025 • Nuño Sempere

15

1

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August 2025

Timeline of all Manifold markets, Polymarket buys US exchange, deceitful ex-Senator lobbies CFTC | Forecasting newslettter #8/2025

Highlights

Aug 7, 2025 • Nuño Sempere

9

2

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July 2025

Humans still crush bots at forecasting, scribble-based forecasting, Kalshi reaches $2B valuation | Forecasting newslettter #7/2025

and possible big incoming tax hike coming to US-based bettors (a).

Jul 5, 2025 • Nuño Sempere

10

3

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June 2025

Forecasting newsletter #6/2025: Manifold structured debt, Manifest soon & ongoing Kalshi lawfare

and /r/forecasting subreddit resuscitated

Jun 4, 2025 • Nuño Sempere

12

2

May 2025

Forecasting newsletter #5/2025: Southeast Asian gangs, adj.news, JurisTrade.

JurisTrade is a litigation marketplace, Southeast Asian gambling & cybercrime gangs look competent, adj.news platform improving, now has good API docs…

May 7, 2025 • Nuño Sempere

12

4

2

April 2025

Forecasting newsletter #4/2025: Sloppy resolutions, AI in 2027

What feels most alive to me this past month: Kalshi and Polymarket misses, AI 2027

Apr 8, 2025 • Nuño Sempere

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