The key question this month was whether prediction markets in general and Polymarket in particular would manage to retain the large volume they attracted during the US elections.
> So is the stock price of United Healthcare going up slightly after its CEO was murdered—it provides a natural experiment for markets for firing CEOs proposed by Robin Hanson.
Couldn't it also indicate that the market expects legislators and regulatory bureaucrats are less likely to impose unfavorable new regulations on United Healthcare than they were before the killing of the CEO? For fear of otherwise being portrayed as rewarding the killer and incentivizing future attacks on executives.
> So is the stock price of United Healthcare going up slightly after its CEO was murdered—it provides a natural experiment for markets for firing CEOs proposed by Robin Hanson.
Couldn't it also indicate that the market expects legislators and regulatory bureaucrats are less likely to impose unfavorable new regulations on United Healthcare than they were before the killing of the CEO? For fear of otherwise being portrayed as rewarding the killer and incentivizing future attacks on executives.
Yes, so there is a judgment call to be made about which of the impacts drowns the other.