National security professionals again found not to be calibrated, Swift Centre on UK winter blackout, adj.news' US Political Future Index || Forecasting newsletter #10/2025
Highlights
Judgmental calibration for 50,408 assessments of uncertainty made by national security professionals, from a new study (a):
Swift Centre looks at: whether winter blackout (a) could freeze the UK’s Financial Services
Friend of the newsletter adj.news creates the US Political Future Index, “A comprehensive measure of anticipated Republican versus Democratic political control across major US electoral offices”. Methodology here.
Prediction markets and forecasting platforms
Polymarket news covers a government shutdown, a Seychelles elections (a), interviews political kiwi “US elections are just unbelievably good because every state has a slightly different way of counting votes. The system is labyrinthine and confusing, you have to know all the ins and outs. You have this inconsistent drip from different places at different times with different types of votes. It also helps that US elections don’t have good quality exit polls.”, and Peter Wildeford (a): “You do have the burden of being right 19 out of 20 times. But there’s just a systematic bias towards the thrill of the 10-to-1 underdogs, and I love fading that.”
Bill Ackman strongly urged (a) Eric Adams to drop out of the NYC mayoral race in order to give Cuomo a better chance, based on Polymarket odds. “And to fund your future, you could place a large bet on Andrew Cuomo and then announce your withdrawal from the race. There is no insider trading on Polymarket.”
And: Polymarket markets tend to go down (a), because they are created at moments of intense interest for things that normally don’t happen. Polymarket launches earnings prediction section for publicly listed companies, and has (a) a prediction market on a US civil war. A list (a) of polymarket tools.
A hit piece (a) on Kalshi compares it having both an exchange and a trading arm (Kalshi Trading) to the FTX/Alameda combo.
Metaculus continues (a) with their AI Forecasting Benchmark Resources Page, and is hiring a head of consulting for $200K
Cyrannus (a) is an app that tries to predict startup success by tapping into a network of experts, and AI . It reportedly has (a) $100M under management. Meanwhile, an AI safety project is deciding (a) on projects using Manifold prediction markets, using play money.
Sports betting (a) operators in Massachusetts are decreasing bet limits for bettors with a “tendency” to win while increasing limits for those who lose. DraftKing (a) CEO argues that sportsbooks have a systematic advantage over prediction markets because they are able to limit sharps, which makes them more able to offer liquidity (because they won’t be as adversely selected against). That is, if your clients are gambling addicts, and you are fully able to pander to them, that’s more profitable than if you have to take both gambling addicts and sophisticated players.
Robinhood shares rose over 12% after CEO Vladimir Tenev posted that it crossed 4 billion (a) event contracts traded. Robinhood is also exploring prediction markets outside the US, reports Bloomberg
Polyrouter is creating (a) one single API over different prediction markets, similar to adj.news, or previously my own metaforecast. Useful service, underpaid.
And: Prediction markets drive $200 million surge for Robinhood, Augur’s plans for the near future. Mick Bransfield looks at the first year of Interactive Brokers’ prediction market offering (a). A startup raised (a) $10M to build infrastructure “for AI Agents while fusing AI & Prediction Markets.” Here is a prediction market index (a). Manifold’s newsletter covers some recent news.
Community
A ManifestX is happening (a) in DC in November 8th. I hear that tickets are already sold out though.
There was (a) a prediction meeting at a large crypto gathering in Singapore
Forecasting teams
The Swift Centre looks at: whether winter blackout (a) could freeze the UK’s Financial Services, at how close a U.S. strike on Venezuela is. They also have an app (a) that is currently free to use.
We at Sentinel continued tracking large-scale risks, and interviewed Ivan Vendrov on the Dangers of Recommender Systems (a).
Odds and ends
Why I’m not trying (a) to freeze and revive a mouse, writes someone, in an article that references a bunch of ellicited expert opinions.
I vibecoded a dispute resolution app, writes Sarah Constantin.
Oracle added Meta’s prophet package to their offerings.
Research and articles
AI Is Learning to (a) Predict the Future—And Beating Humans at It, says Time Magazine. One quote from the article that stuck with me was:
“The one thing about forecasting, or predictive analytics, is that it’s decision support,”
And: An interview (a) with Alex Tabarrok on prediction markets. Forecasting electricity needs in the US is tricky (a). PrediBench, testing (a) AI models on prediction markets: Perplexity is doing well.
Lawfare
Supreme Court will likely decide (a) legal status of prediction markets. Given the number of cases, this will probably lead to a circuit split, which will have to go to the Supreme Court.
The CFTC grants PredictIt permission to launch (a) a regulated exchange. It also eyed (a) Kalshi lawyer Josh Sterling for new chair. Polymarket also received a green signal from CFTC for US return, in the form of a no action letter (a) for their recently acquired US subsidiary.
Kristine Johnson gave a farewell adress (a) when leaving the CFTC. She emphasized consumer protection and risk management, and expresses disappointment that the CFTC did not finalize rules on event contracts. But as a Democrat, she is losing the argument.
Finally, the “rent or buy” my license in derivatives markets is booming as prediction markets promise to eclipse crypto markets in volumes of retail customers’ cash captured. The Commission has recently witnessed a number of newly created and legacy firms seeking licenses to offer event contracts. In a number of instances, these businesses approach the Commission seeking licenses to offer traditional products, only to quickly shift once a license is in hand and seek to self-certify prediction market contracts. In other contexts, firms that have received a license quickly auction their newly minted license to others.
The Massachusetts Attorney General filed a lawsuit against Kalshi for offering “illegal and unsafe” sports betting, and Kalshi’s legal saga generally continues.
Arizona department of gaming warns (a) operators on risks of prediction market involvement. Perhaps as a result, Fitch evaluates the risk of prediction markets to their ratings for Flutter and DraftKings, and says that prediction markets raises risks (a) for online gaming operators.
Research claims the majority of Americans would class sports event contracts as gambling.
News
Some Desmoines Register purple prose:
In Iowa, farming is more than a job: It’s a way of life passed down through generations… That’s why, more than a century ago, Congress created futures markets to give farming families a fighting chance in an unpredictable business. And it worked.
Betting Platforms Put Risk of Government Shutdown at Over 70%, wrote The Wall Street Journal. Great use of prediction markets. Sadly, the prediction markets themselves didn’t capture the social value created through the common knowledge produced through this market.
The Financial Times looks at how prediction markets are shaking (a) up sports gambling in America.
And: Trump Jr. advised (a) prediction markets invite bets on president’s demise. German economic institutes revise up 2025 growth forecast to 0.2%.
there are no really trustworthy standards of rigor in a mathematics that has embraced the theory of infinite sets
—E.T. Jaynes, Probability Theory: The Logic of Science, page xxvii