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Charlie's avatar

Thank you for sharing my Manifold timeline! I promise to share future projects (a lot of which will likely be forecasting-based) from here on my Substack!

Mick Bransfield's avatar

The 2010 Lincoln-Feinstein colloquy about event contracts *probably* never happened. CSPAN, National Archives, and the Senate video office don't have any footage of either Senator that day. There isn't a record (I could find) of Lincoln being in the Senate that day.

Staffers can insert statements into the Congressional Record making it "official", but that doesn't mean it actually happened. We don't know who or what led that becoming part of the record, so I think 'lie' is too harsh for this situation.