The American Empire Has Alzheimer's. Prediction Markets: VC money, searching for DraftKings, predatory pricing, and the race to be last.
Minor quibble, but I think it's slightly misleading to point to DraftKings' value before information came out about already occurring practices, the revelation of which would decrease its value - this is trusting a situation with less information more than one with more information, without a material change in the actual state of the world.
>Personally, the profit model that I'd like to see is one in which the prediction market platforms extract the profit not from their users, but rather from the people who are consuming the odds which the betting produces as a side-effect.
I'm working on a platform that does exactly this. It's interesting that you've been thinking about this, cause I've been trying to contact you to chat about just that! What's the best way to reach you? My email is firstname.lastname@example.org
Excellent post, I enjoyed the long view on the field.
I agree with your takes on forecasting tournaments vs. prediction markets. I expect both models will do well, though with different people using them for different ends.
I'm more hopeful on US intelligence community adoption of forecasting methods, especially in recent months. Morgan Muir, the Deputy DNI for Mission Integration (who thus oversees the National Intelligence Council --https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/ODNI_Org_Chart_Final_For_Web_2020_1.pdf) announced last September that the NIC is working on "incorporating some of the insights that we've gotten ... into a new crowdsourced forecasting tool" and established a new position focused on forecasting (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qmwbXkJA-sA&t=901s), the first public acknowledgement of this
There is a glorious comment over on the EA Forum on: what about other countries? https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/vcxj7bGERxDzuiEzr/forecasting-newsletter-looking-back-at-2021?commentId=3ddJhcPgfgJiwGksd