8 Comments

Minor quibble, but I think it's slightly misleading to point to DraftKings' value before information came out about already occurring practices, the revelation of which would decrease its value - this is trusting a situation with less information more than one with more information, without a material change in the actual state of the world.

Expand full comment
author

See the Drafkings section <3, it does mention Hinderburg Research's report.

Expand full comment

Yes, but you refer to their value pre- report rather than post- report, which my argument above claims should be a more accurate number.

Expand full comment

>Personally, the profit model that I'd like to see is one in which the prediction market platforms extract the profit not from their users, but rather from the people who are consuming the odds which the betting produces as a side-effect.

I'm working on a platform that does exactly this. It's interesting that you've been thinking about this, cause I've been trying to contact you to chat about just that! What's the best way to reach you? My email is federicoruizcassarino@gmail.com

Expand full comment
author

Just answered!

Expand full comment
Jan 27, 2022Liked by Nuño Sempere

Excellent post, I enjoyed the long view on the field.

I agree with your takes on forecasting tournaments vs. prediction markets. I expect both models will do well, though with different people using them for different ends.

Expand full comment
Jan 27, 2022Liked by Nuño Sempere

I'm more hopeful on US intelligence community adoption of forecasting methods, especially in recent months. Morgan Muir, the Deputy DNI for Mission Integration (who thus oversees the National Intelligence Council --https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/ODNI_Org_Chart_Final_For_Web_2020_1.pdf) announced last September that the NIC is working on "incorporating some of the insights that we've gotten ... into a new crowdsourced forecasting tool" and established a new position focused on forecasting (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qmwbXkJA-sA&t=901s), the first public acknowledgement of this

Expand full comment