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crule's avatar

I'm more hopeful on US intelligence community adoption of forecasting methods, especially in recent months. Morgan Muir, the Deputy DNI for Mission Integration (who thus oversees the National Intelligence Council --https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/ODNI_Org_Chart_Final_For_Web_2020_1.pdf) announced last September that the NIC is working on "incorporating some of the insights that we've gotten ... into a new crowdsourced forecasting tool" and established a new position focused on forecasting (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qmwbXkJA-sA&t=901s), the first public acknowledgement of this

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Dan Schwarz's avatar

Excellent post, I enjoyed the long view on the field.

I agree with your takes on forecasting tournaments vs. prediction markets. I expect both models will do well, though with different people using them for different ends.

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