"The Metaculus community currently forecasts that just under 10M (a) infections will be estimated to have occurred worldwide before 2023, with a broad range of 1.8M to 18M estimated to encompass the middle 50% of the probability distribution."
I'm not sure where these numbers came from, I'm seeing 260,000 as the community median with IQR of 91k to 960k.
Completely my mistake! Thanks so much for catching that, Ryan. Nuño, could you please either update the column or put a note at the bottom? Please change "just under 10M (a) infections will be estimated to have occurred worldwide before 2023, with a broad range of 1.8M to 18M estimated to encompass the middle 50% of the probability distribution" to "260k infections will be estimated to have occurred worldwide before 2023, with a broad range of 91k to 960k estimated to encompass the middle 50% of the probability distribution". Sorry for the confusion.
@belikewater Excellent post; it's the best piece of writing I've seen on Monkeypox. Really enjoyed the format with an overall timeline of events, intermixed with analysis and reports from different forecasting platforms. I haven't been paying that much attention to the subject while vaguely feeling like I ought to, and this report has saved me a lot of time.
I'd love to send you a bounty of M$10k (USD $100 of mana); contact me on Discord or at austin@manifold.markets!
Fascinating round-up, Nuño, just subscribed! Re: monkeypox, I expect it will be a shitshow on college campuses and possibly in schools, but fervently hope I'm wrong. I also think there's some underestimation of how much people do not want to get this disease, and how that could affect economies until sufficient vaccines are made available, and have invested accordingly.
I recently came across a website that allows you to view major changes on prediction markets. Not sure if it was mentioned on your newsletter but I can't seem to find it. Do you know the name of the tool to which I'm referring?
Great stuff as always
"The Metaculus community currently forecasts that just under 10M (a) infections will be estimated to have occurred worldwide before 2023, with a broad range of 1.8M to 18M estimated to encompass the middle 50% of the probability distribution."
I'm not sure where these numbers came from, I'm seeing 260,000 as the community median with IQR of 91k to 960k.
Not sure either, I asked belikewater, will follow up. In the meantime, I've updated the post with a note.
Completely my mistake! Thanks so much for catching that, Ryan. Nuño, could you please either update the column or put a note at the bottom? Please change "just under 10M (a) infections will be estimated to have occurred worldwide before 2023, with a broad range of 1.8M to 18M estimated to encompass the middle 50% of the probability distribution" to "260k infections will be estimated to have occurred worldwide before 2023, with a broad range of 91k to 960k estimated to encompass the middle 50% of the probability distribution". Sorry for the confusion.
Cheers, changed.
@belikewater Excellent post; it's the best piece of writing I've seen on Monkeypox. Really enjoyed the format with an overall timeline of events, intermixed with analysis and reports from different forecasting platforms. I haven't been paying that much attention to the subject while vaguely feeling like I ought to, and this report has saved me a lot of time.
I'd love to send you a bounty of M$10k (USD $100 of mana); contact me on Discord or at austin@manifold.markets!
Fascinating round-up, Nuño, just subscribed! Re: monkeypox, I expect it will be a shitshow on college campuses and possibly in schools, but fervently hope I'm wrong. I also think there's some underestimation of how much people do not want to get this disease, and how that could affect economies until sufficient vaccines are made available, and have invested accordingly.
I recently came across a website that allows you to view major changes on prediction markets. Not sure if it was mentioned on your newsletter but I can't seem to find it. Do you know the name of the tool to which I'm referring?
Hey, you are probably thinking about metaforecast.org; if you click on an expand button at the top right of a question's card, you can see the history, e.g.,: https://metaforecast.org/questions/kalshi-dbbfcc7f-d866-4030-bd09-40e4b8014ad1 . There is also https://predictiondiffs.com/, which does much the same thing but only for Metaculus so far.