"The Metaculus community currently forecasts that just under 10M (a) infections will be estimated to have occurred worldwide before 2023, with a broad range of 1.8M to 18M estimated to encompass the middle 50% of the probability distribution."
I'm not sure where these numbers came from, I'm seeing 260,000 as the community median with IQR of 91k to 960k.
@belikewater Excellent post; it's the best piece of writing I've seen on Monkeypox. Really enjoyed the format with an overall timeline of events, intermixed with analysis and reports from different forecasting platforms. I haven't been paying that much attention to the subject while vaguely feeling like I ought to, and this report has saved me a lot of time.
I'd love to send you a bounty of M$10k (USD $100 of mana); contact me on Discord or at austin@manifold.markets!
Fascinating round-up, Nuño, just subscribed! Re: monkeypox, I expect it will be a shitshow on college campuses and possibly in schools, but fervently hope I'm wrong. I also think there's some underestimation of how much people do not want to get this disease, and how that could affect economies until sufficient vaccines are made available, and have invested accordingly.
I recently came across a website that allows you to view major changes on prediction markets. Not sure if it was mentioned on your newsletter but I can't seem to find it. Do you know the name of the tool to which I'm referring?
Great stuff as always
"The Metaculus community currently forecasts that just under 10M (a) infections will be estimated to have occurred worldwide before 2023, with a broad range of 1.8M to 18M estimated to encompass the middle 50% of the probability distribution."
I'm not sure where these numbers came from, I'm seeing 260,000 as the community median with IQR of 91k to 960k.
@belikewater Excellent post; it's the best piece of writing I've seen on Monkeypox. Really enjoyed the format with an overall timeline of events, intermixed with analysis and reports from different forecasting platforms. I haven't been paying that much attention to the subject while vaguely feeling like I ought to, and this report has saved me a lot of time.
I'd love to send you a bounty of M$10k (USD $100 of mana); contact me on Discord or at austin@manifold.markets!
Fascinating round-up, Nuño, just subscribed! Re: monkeypox, I expect it will be a shitshow on college campuses and possibly in schools, but fervently hope I'm wrong. I also think there's some underestimation of how much people do not want to get this disease, and how that could affect economies until sufficient vaccines are made available, and have invested accordingly.
I recently came across a website that allows you to view major changes on prediction markets. Not sure if it was mentioned on your newsletter but I can't seem to find it. Do you know the name of the tool to which I'm referring?