- [The CIA Vindicated: The Soviet Collapse Was Predicted](hhttps://www.jstor.org/stable/42897026). Kind of wrong, but it led me to get some background on the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
- Karvetski et al "Forecasting the Accuracy of Forecasters from Properties of Forecasting Rationales". This was interesting, but it's not on sci-hub, and thus not easily shareable.
- [Science Forecast: A Machine Learning Challenge in the Science of Science](https://www.iarai.ac.at/science4cast/). Kind of interesting, but very low prizes and not very related to human judgmental forecasting.
Here are some links which I discarded, but which I still think are sort of interesting:
- [Test & Roll: Profit-Maximizing A/B Tests](https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2021/06/30/test-roll-profit-maximizing-a-b-tests-by-feit-and-berman/)
- [The CIA Vindicated: The Soviet Collapse Was Predicted](hhttps://www.jstor.org/stable/42897026). Kind of wrong, but it led me to get some background on the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
- Karvetski et al "Forecasting the Accuracy of Forecasters from Properties of Forecasting Rationales". This was interesting, but it's not on sci-hub, and thus not easily shareable.
- [Sequence Thinking vs Cluster Thinking](https://blog.givewell.org/2014/06/10/sequence-thinking-vs-cluster-thinking/)
- The Wall Street Journal writes: [Why the Dow 36000 Forecast (from 1998) Was Right](https://www.wsj.com/articles/dow-36000-forecast-right-stocks-bonds-records-glassman-hassett-11631117174) (non-paywalled version available [here](https://archive.is/5Nuvt)). I thought this was essentially clickbait. Shame on you WSJ.
- [Science Forecast: A Machine Learning Challenge in the Science of Science](https://www.iarai.ac.at/science4cast/). Kind of interesting, but very low prizes and not very related to human judgmental forecasting.
- [A Pulse on the Pad: Announcing NearPad’s First Launchpad Project](https://nearpad.medium.com/a-pulse-on-the-pad-announcing-nearpads-first-launchpad-project-5028c746c5c5). Prediction-market related, but the project seems kind of scammy.
- [People.ai Raises $100M to Fuel Global Adoption of Revenue Intelligence Platform; Company Reaches $1.1B Valuation](https://people.ai/news/people-ai-raises-100-million-series-d/)