Oxford Workshop on Longterm Forecasting happened, track record of science-fiction authors unearthed, forecasters surprised by ML models' math ability jump.
Do you agree with my view that there's a strange absence of predictions related to abortion in the post-Dobbs world, specifically in the on-the-ground consequentialist sense of predicting medium-term change in number of US abortions, birth rate, pill availability, and the like? Feels like we've had a lot of these for Covid and Ukraine, but the abortion-forecasting dialogue (to the extent it exists) is only about Supreme Court cases and legislation.
I'm interested in hearing if anyone has put together a bunch of these forecasts. In the meantime, I've launched a mini-contest to fill the gap: https://forms.gle/UEejKBaBvwJQxn5k7
Do you agree with my view that there's a strange absence of predictions related to abortion in the post-Dobbs world, specifically in the on-the-ground consequentialist sense of predicting medium-term change in number of US abortions, birth rate, pill availability, and the like? Feels like we've had a lot of these for Covid and Ukraine, but the abortion-forecasting dialogue (to the extent it exists) is only about Supreme Court cases and legislation.
I'm interested in hearing if anyone has put together a bunch of these forecasts. In the meantime, I've launched a mini-contest to fill the gap: https://forms.gle/UEejKBaBvwJQxn5k7