Highlights: Nigh unbeatable forecaster gives 85% chance that the newly identified COVID-19 strain is >30% more transmissible. Prediction markets and betting platforms mostly resolved the election in favor of Biden already. However, new markets have been created about whether Trump will still be president in February. Those who believe he won't can still earn a circa
Forecasting Newsletter: December 2020
Forecasting Newsletter: December 2020
Forecasting Newsletter: December 2020
Highlights: Nigh unbeatable forecaster gives 85% chance that the newly identified COVID-19 strain is >30% more transmissible. Prediction markets and betting platforms mostly resolved the election in favor of Biden already. However, new markets have been created about whether Trump will still be president in February. Those who believe he won't can still earn a circa