Highlights: 538 releases model of the US elections; Trump predicted to win ~30% of the time. Study offers instructive comparison of New York covid models, finds that for the IHME model, reported death counts fell inside the 95% prediction intervals only 53% of the time.
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Forecasting Newsletter: August 2020.
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Highlights: 538 releases model of the US elections; Trump predicted to win ~30% of the time. Study offers instructive comparison of New York covid models, finds that for the IHME model, reported death counts fell inside the 95% prediction intervals only 53% of the time.