Apr 29Liked by Nuño Sempere

Wow! You did an excellent job with H5N1, in particular the history of pigs being mixing agents for flu recombinations. I also appreciate your many caveats instead of focusing on the most alarming possibilities (i.e. integrative complexity).

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I learned so much about H5N1! This work you are doing is great!

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I would be interesting on reading more about your H5N1 forecasts. I have two questions in particular.

First, the reasoning behind a ~1% risk for the next year. This is much lower than Cambeiro's 4% forecast for a similar event from a year ago, which has very transparent reasoning (linked below). Since then, the base rate should have lowered because we've seen a bunch more infections without a pandemic. However, the cattle outbreak seems especially concerning. Do you just think the base rate update dominates (which is reasonable to me)? Or is there a more fundamental disagreement with Cambeiro?

Link: https://ifp.org/what-are-the-chances-an-h5n1-pandemic-is-worse-than-covid/

Second, what definition are you using for CFR? CFRs depend at least as much on the definition of "case" as they do on biology.

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