EAs, rats, forecasters & prediction markets people think about risk in an idiosyncratic way. But there are insights to be found in other expert communities, including the fields of disaster risk reduction, safety science, risk analysis, science and technology studies—like the sociology of risk—and futures studies.
Brilliant summary, I wish everyone in the field and concerned about X-risk/GCR/AI/the future knew about all these. I will be directing people to this post.
Strangely enough this is actually an elaborated version of Understanding Risk, a google doc I used to introduce risk models/theories to participants in my GCR introductory course, X-Risk Fundamentals.
I've run it for various student groups/summer fellowships, but never got around to publishing it properly due to time pressure & lack of funding opportunities for heterodox/critical x-risk work.
Brilliant summary, I wish everyone in the field and concerned about X-risk/GCR/AI/the future knew about all these. I will be directing people to this post.
100 % agree with Juan here. Would be great if such a text would find its way into EA introduction about global catastrophic risk etc..
Strangely enough this is actually an elaborated version of Understanding Risk, a google doc I used to introduce risk models/theories to participants in my GCR introductory course, X-Risk Fundamentals.
I've run it for various student groups/summer fellowships, but never got around to publishing it properly due to time pressure & lack of funding opportunities for heterodox/critical x-risk work.
More than happy to chat if you're interested!
Happy to hear that this has reached some people in the GCR space :)
I wrote you an email to schedule a chat.
An adjacent resource: Foresight Playbook: https://www.undp.org/sites/g/files/zskgke326/files/2022-07/UNDP-RBAP-Foresight-Playbook-Appendix-2022_0.pdf
Hi Nuño,
Relatedly, there is the Australian government futures primer (https://nsc.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/2024-07/Australian%20Government%20Futures%20Primer_NSC-compressed_1.pdf). FWIW, I have heard from a foresight expert it is the best overview around.