I agree with you that "the latter" are worthy causes.
But I wouldn't discount Good Judgement / Tetlock and Hypermind just because they (we? I've been contracting with GJ since 2015 and GJP has made my reputation, so I am very much part of that; trust me at your peril) are corporate forecasting mercenaries.
All platforms struggle with weak policymaker interest because everyone thinks they're the best forecaster ever. The world seems to be in agreement that forecasting (all of research, actually) should be a "free" goody to come with marketing your main product. All platforms struggle retaining good talent: forecasting doesn't pay. And all forecasting markets struggle with regulatory problems, chains that need to be broken, but no one knows how for now. Crowd forecasts are public goods at the end of the day, and as such they will all need subsidizing forever I think. Unless someone figures out how to make a big news site with tons of good content and content related marketing on it, targeted to consumers of geopolitical forecasts and (maybe, partly) paywalled.
It's a chicken and egg problem. Clients say "give me interesting targeted forecasts now, then I'll see if I pay you later". Platforms say "give me money now and I'll build your targeted forecasts".
Clients never come around to pay though, because their ego, politics, and prestige are hurt when they discover they're actually not the best forecasters. Forecasting in companies is the CEOs job. In a round with some sweets industry CEOs I was in a few years back, the group forecast that cocoa prices would fall soon. That was right after one of the CEOs boasted he had secured his cocoa supply and price for two years just before the meeting with a long term contract.
What's the endgame? Considering the lack of take-off in the last seven years, geopolitical forecasting will always remain a (fun, for forecasters like me) small niche within foreign affairs reporting, which is itself a small niche in media reporting. In acute "crisis times" or "election times" there will be acute demand, but no willingness to pay and no systematic advantage of good forecasters over the general crowd. Superforecasters are indeed useful mostly for the 6m-2y advance frame, because that's when nobody else is interested in the question. And they're not very useful when deep liquid markets already exist.
Thank you for maintaining this newsletter.
Forgot to mention that Eli Lifland's $4k impactful forecasting price is still alive until the 11th of March: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/HDoMrQFG76QtkdrZJ/impactful-forecasting-prize-for-forecast-writeups-on-curated
I agree with you that "the latter" are worthy causes.
But I wouldn't discount Good Judgement / Tetlock and Hypermind just because they (we? I've been contracting with GJ since 2015 and GJP has made my reputation, so I am very much part of that; trust me at your peril) are corporate forecasting mercenaries.
All platforms struggle with weak policymaker interest because everyone thinks they're the best forecaster ever. The world seems to be in agreement that forecasting (all of research, actually) should be a "free" goody to come with marketing your main product. All platforms struggle retaining good talent: forecasting doesn't pay. And all forecasting markets struggle with regulatory problems, chains that need to be broken, but no one knows how for now. Crowd forecasts are public goods at the end of the day, and as such they will all need subsidizing forever I think. Unless someone figures out how to make a big news site with tons of good content and content related marketing on it, targeted to consumers of geopolitical forecasts and (maybe, partly) paywalled.
It's a chicken and egg problem. Clients say "give me interesting targeted forecasts now, then I'll see if I pay you later". Platforms say "give me money now and I'll build your targeted forecasts".
Clients never come around to pay though, because their ego, politics, and prestige are hurt when they discover they're actually not the best forecasters. Forecasting in companies is the CEOs job. In a round with some sweets industry CEOs I was in a few years back, the group forecast that cocoa prices would fall soon. That was right after one of the CEOs boasted he had secured his cocoa supply and price for two years just before the meeting with a long term contract.
What's the endgame? Considering the lack of take-off in the last seven years, geopolitical forecasting will always remain a (fun, for forecasters like me) small niche within foreign affairs reporting, which is itself a small niche in media reporting. In acute "crisis times" or "election times" there will be acute demand, but no willingness to pay and no systematic advantage of good forecasters over the general crowd. Superforecasters are indeed useful mostly for the 6m-2y advance frame, because that's when nobody else is interested in the question. And they're not very useful when deep liquid markets already exist.