As always, you included news that I had not seen before. Thanks.

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Feb 3, 2022·edited Feb 3, 2022Liked by Nuño Sempere

You (and until recently, I) missed this big news, an Air Force SBIR for a combined forecasting/news aggregation system in similar to Good Judgment. Inc.'s FutureFirst, but leveraging NLP/AI to greatly increase throughput and coverage. https://www.sbir.gov/node/2101893. Phase III is focused upon commercialization. This would be a great leap forward in the forecasting world, but also could be seen as a threat to GJI's FutureFirst and in general to the use of superforecasters.

We have shown in " What do forecasting rationales reveal about thinking patterns of top geopolitical forecasters?" https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0169207021001473, that NLP/random forest applied to forecaster rationales can turn a relatively ordinary set of human forecasters such as Amazon Prime workers into a prediction powerhouse similar to superforecasters. The AF SBIR should build upon our research.

As a superforecaster myself, I'm not entirely thrilled by this progress, but on the other hand, it promises to empower "regular" folks, and I like that more.

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Nice, thanks for the reference!

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