This newsletter is paused until further notice.

Too tricky, don't get paid enough & don't want to antagonize Open Philanthropy prematurely.

This newsletter is paused until further notice.

1. I've been writing the "looking back at forecasting in 2022" post. It's been a labor of love, but I think that writing an honest evaluation as I see it might piss off a bunch of people, and I'm not sure how I want to deal with that. This could be fixed by spending more time editing and adding more finesse, but...

2. The money is not worth it. As the value of my time increases, it comes to be that I'm not getting paid enough through subscriptions that I feel good about spending as much time as I have been on this newsletter. This could be fixed by writing shorter and snappier newsletters, but...

3. I am applying to the Forecasting Senior Program Associate at Open Philanthropy, and I want to be careful with how I review a prospective employer.

I've paused Substack paying subscriptions. After I either get hired at Open Philanthropy or don't, I'll think about resuming this, and about who I think should be paying for this newsletter, which I think has been a decent public good and has given me decent models of the forecasting ecosystem.

In the meantime, readers might want to follow me to my personal blog—to which they can subscribe here—where I post things that I enjoy writing for their own sake, or to the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute’s substack—the substack for the organization which employs me, which contains a less rambly selection of forecasting and estimation related posts.

Thanks for bearing with me for the last 2-3 years.

Nuño