This newsletter is paused until further notice.
This newsletter is paused until further notice.
Too tricky, don't get paid enough & don't want to antagonize Open Philanthropy prematurely.
This newsletter is paused until further notice.
I've been writing the "looking back at forecasting in 2022" post. It's been a labor of love, but I think that writing an honest evaluation as I see it might piss off a bunch of people, and I'm not sure how I want to deal with that. This could be fixed by spending more time editing and adding more finesse, but...
The money is not worth it. As the value of my time increases, it comes to be that I'm not getting paid enough through subscriptions that I feel good about spending as much time as I have been on this newsletter. This could be fixed by writing shorter and snappier newsletters, but...
I am applying to the Forecasting Senior Program Associate at Open Philanthropy, and I want to be careful with how I review a prospective employer.
I've paused Substack paying subscriptions. After I either get hired at Open Philanthropy or don't, I'll think about resuming this, and about who I think should be paying for this newsletter, which I think has been a decent public good and has given me decent models of the forecasting ecosystem.
In the meantime, readers might want to follow me to my personal blog—to which they can subscribe here—where I post things that I enjoy writing for their own sake, or to the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute’s substack—the substack for the organization which employs me, which contains a less rambly selection of forecasting and estimation related posts.
Thanks for bearing with me for the last 2-3 years.
Nuño
I'm sorry to see you pause this newsletter. Your research has been outstanding. I hope you will get the Open Philanthropy job, as many forecasting entities are going to be hurting given that so many have lost financial support. My take on the situation is that it will get much worse before getting better.
I have been quietly tracking the field with much of my data in spreadsheet format. Enabling you to become even more of a success means enough to me that if I can be of assistance in any way, please let me know. At the very least, I could serve as a reference. My personal website: https://cmeinel.com; see also https://isitaustin.org/news.html.
You should send out your draft to the people that you don't know will get annoyed :)