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A Gentle Introduction to Risk Frameworks Beyond Forecasting
EAs, rats, forecasters & prediction markets people think about risk in an idiosyncratic way. But there are insights to be found in other expert…
Mar 26
•
Nuño Sempere
and
Nathaniel Cooke
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A Gentle Introduction to Risk Frameworks Beyond Forecasting
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Forecasting newsletter coming back soon.
Next article to be overview of non-forecasting foresight methods, next article after that, State of Forecasting. Paid subscriptions to be turned back…
Mar 21
•
Nuño Sempere
13
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Forecasting newsletter coming back soon.
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March 2023
This newsletter is paused until further notice.
Too tricky, don't get paid enough & don't want to antagonize Open Philanthropy prematurely.
Mar 12, 2023
•
Nuño Sempere
13
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This newsletter is paused until further notice.
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January 2023
Forecasting Newsletter for November and December 2022
PredictIt near its end, Avi Eisenberg held in jail, and no FTX forecasting money ever again.
Jan 7, 2023
•
Nuño Sempere
12
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Forecasting Newsletter for November and December 2022
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November 2022
Forecasting Newsletter for October 2022
Nuclear probabilities spiked & spooked Musk, Council on Strategic Risk seeking Strategic Forecaster.
Nov 15, 2022
•
Nuño Sempere
3
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Forecasting Newsletter for October 2022
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October 2022
Draft comment to the CFTC
Below is a short draft comment I was considering sending to the CFTC. Ultimately, I didn’t, because of problems with the CFTC’s website, because the…
Oct 18, 2022
•
Nuño Sempere
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Draft comment to the CFTC
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Forecasting Newsletter: September 2022.
PredictIt vs Kalshi vs CFTC saga continues. Future Fund anounced $1M+ prize for shifting their probabilities of AI timelines & dangers. Dan Luu looks at…
Oct 12, 2022
•
Nuño Sempere
9
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Forecasting Newsletter: September 2022.
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September 2022
Forecasting Newsletter: August 2022.
CFTC asks for public comments about allowing Kalshi to phagocytize PredictIt's political prediction markets niche, $25k tournament by Richard Hanania…
Sep 10, 2022
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Nuño Sempere
11
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Forecasting Newsletter: August 2022.
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August 2022
Forecasting Newsletter: July 2022
PredictIt loses CFTC approval, Metaculus gets $5M Open Philanthropy grant, Indian prediction market scene starts to thrive.
Aug 8, 2022
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Nuño Sempere
7
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Forecasting Newsletter: July 2022
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July 2022
Forecasting Newsletter: June 2022
Oxford Workshop on Longterm Forecasting happened, track record of science-fiction authors unearthed, forecasters surprised by ML models' math ability…
Jul 12, 2022
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Nuño Sempere
7
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Forecasting Newsletter: June 2022
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June 2022
Forecasting Newsletter: May 2022
Open Philanthropy asking for biological risk quantifications, Survival and Flourishing Fund gives $1M to forecasting, Kalshi featured in Bloomberg.
Jun 3, 2022
•
Nuño Sempere
4
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Forecasting Newsletter: May 2022
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May 2022
Forecasting Newsletter: April 2022
US CDC opens a pandemic forecasting center. Tetlock's forecasting team is recruiting for a tournament on predicting existential risk. Manifold Markets…
May 10, 2022
•
Nuño Sempere
8
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Forecasting Newsletter: April 2022
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