Are you concerned at all that the transformation of many prediction markets into sports books will drive out the people actually interested in forecasting? Similar to how the gambling degens drove out many of the crypto-curious tech people and now crypto is awash in hucksters and scams
I don't have a strong opinion, and don't think we've reached that point given that filtering markets is so cheap. I do feel sorrow at bright minds wasting their life predicting music charts against noobs <https://x.com/GaetenD>.
I agree about the Cassandra problem. Achieving highly accurate predictions becomes less relevant if these are not impactful. The forecasting ecosystem seems to excessively rely on grants and philanthropic funding, while the existing economic value of forecasting and foresight isn't being realized to its full potential. This highlights how predictions currently need to be more usable, rather than exclusively more accurate, to make the ecosystem self-sustaining.
In your view, what is currently the single biggest missed opportunity to make forecasts more usable and valuable in the real world in the immediate future?
Are you concerned at all that the transformation of many prediction markets into sports books will drive out the people actually interested in forecasting? Similar to how the gambling degens drove out many of the crypto-curious tech people and now crypto is awash in hucksters and scams
I don't have a strong opinion, and don't think we've reached that point given that filtering markets is so cheap. I do feel sorrow at bright minds wasting their life predicting music charts against noobs <https://x.com/GaetenD>.
Filtering markets?
I agree about the Cassandra problem. Achieving highly accurate predictions becomes less relevant if these are not impactful. The forecasting ecosystem seems to excessively rely on grants and philanthropic funding, while the existing economic value of forecasting and foresight isn't being realized to its full potential. This highlights how predictions currently need to be more usable, rather than exclusively more accurate, to make the ecosystem self-sustaining.
In your view, what is currently the single biggest missed opportunity to make forecasts more usable and valuable in the real world in the immediate future?