Forecasting

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Too tricky, don't get paid enough & don't want to antagonize Open Philanthropy prematurely.
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Forecasting Newsletter for November and December 2022
PredictIt near its end, Avi Eisenberg held in jail, and no FTX forecasting money ever again.
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Nuño Sempere
11
Forecasting Newsletter for October 2022
Nuclear probabilities spiked & spooked Musk, Council on Strategic Risk seeking Strategic Forecaster.
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Nuño Sempere
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Draft comment to the CFTC
Below is a short draft comment I was considering sending to the CFTC. Ultimately, I didn’t, because of problems with the CFTC’s website, because the…
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Nuño Sempere
Forecasting Newsletter: September 2022.
PredictIt vs Kalshi vs CFTC saga continues. Future Fund anounced $1M+ prize for shifting their probabilities of AI timelines & dangers. Dan Luu looks at…
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Nuño Sempere
3
Forecasting Newsletter: August 2022.
CFTC asks for public comments about allowing Kalshi to phagocytize PredictIt's political prediction markets niche, $25k tournament by Richard Hanania…
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Nuño Sempere
Forecasting Newsletter: July 2022
PredictIt loses CFTC approval, Metaculus gets $5M Open Philanthropy grant, Indian prediction market scene starts to thrive.
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Nuño Sempere
9
Forecasting Newsletter: June 2022
Oxford Workshop on Longterm Forecasting happened, track record of science-fiction authors unearthed, forecasters surprised by ML models' math ability…
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Nuño Sempere
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Forecasting
Forecasting
A monthly newsletter on prediction markets and forecasting platforms: what they're up to, where they are going, and what they should be doing.

Forecasting

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